§ 03 · analysis · evolution
Premium evolution 2022→2025 series.
Annual trajectory of direct premium and incurred claim by line, highlighting the five lines with greatest aggregated premium. The series covers 2022 to 2024 complete plus partial 2025, marked with asterisk given that the SUSEP snapshot used reflects the most recent available period.
Time series by line
The chart below allows switching between lines to compare direct-premium evolution with incurred-claim evolution. In healthy lines, the loss ratio tends to oscillate within a predictable band, and the premium grows in line with real market growth. When abrupt decoupling appears, it is worth investigating the specific event that justifies the anomaly.
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Line 196 · emblematic case
The clearest example of decoupling in the analyzed window is line 196 (Named and Operational Risks) in 2024, given the historic flood in Rio Grande do Sul. Accumulated claims handily exceed the year's premium, and loss ratio surpasses 4.0 in a single cut, a value that returns to normal levels in 2025. The loss-ratio page details this case with monthly decomposition and historical comparison. See detail →
Caveats
Year-over-year comparisons use direct premium rather than earned premium, given that direct premium most closely approximates the actual financial movement of the period. For technical profitability analysis, earned premium is more appropriate and is available in the raw JSON at /research/data. I also note that inflation has not been deflated in the chart, given that the intended unit is nominal-current, not real.